09.04.2019; Kolloquium
Colloquium: "Flexibility in the Selection of Patent Counts: Implications for p-Hacking and Policy Recommendations"
Abstract:
This study analyzes how researchers' degrees of freedom in selecting patent counts inuence econometrically estimated policy e_ects. Using the evaluation of solar energy policies as an example, we identify from the literature 51 strategies to select solar patents resulting in 306 di_erent solar patent counts by considering six common quality levels of patents. We replicate two leading studies in this literature and re-estimate their econometric models using all of these patent counts. Our results demonstrate severe uncertainty regarding sizes and even signs of key policy effects opening up the potential for p-hacking and posing a fundamental challenge for evidence-based policymaking.