SeEiS

SeEiS - Modelling of the substitution effects of renewable energies in the German and European electricity sector and their effects on the emission calculation of renewable energy sources

Background:
The Federal Environment Agency has been publishing an emissions balance for renewable energies (RE) for the electricity, heat and transport sectors since 2007. This regularly updated publication reflects the latest insights on the development of renewable energies and the resulting emission avoidance and provides the framework for numerous national reporting obligations.

Objectives:
The focus of the research project is the further development of the methodology for the calculation of the EE emissions balance for the electricity sector in order to take account of the changing framework conditions in the energy industry. Taking foreign trade in electricity into account, the aim of the project is to investigate the extent to which growing renewable energy feed-in in Germany influences the use of fossil power plants at the European level and the impact this has on renewable energy emissions calculation.

Methodology:
The substitution effects are analyzed by a systematic comparison of the real development of the European electricity sector and a counterfactual scenario that is as plausible as possible to a German power plant park without German RE generation. For this purpose, conceivable alternative scenarios with hypothetical framework conditions are first developed. Using the European electricity market model ELTRAMOD-INVEST, for each alternative scenario the fictitious development of the German power plant park (decisions on expansion and decommissioning) is examined. The counterfactual scenario to be applied is then synthesized from this scenario bundle.

On this basis, the substitution effects are quantified using the ELTRAMOD-DISPATCH electricity market model with an hourly analysis of power plant use at European level. The results of the counterfactual scenario are compared with the real power generation mix including renewables. The substitution factors are determined by allocating the shares of the feed-in RE mix to the shares of the displaced conventional generation mix on an hourly basis.

The European network model ELMOD is used to analyze the load on the domestic German grid and the cross-border interconnectors. The impact of renewable and conventional power generators on grid bottlenecks in Germany and in neighboring countries as well as on border interconnectors will be investigated. For this purpose, grid loads and necessary redispatch measures will be determined and compared in counterfactual and real scenarios.

Duration: May 2017 to March 2020

Client: Federal Environment Agency (EVUPLAN 37EV 16 126 0)

Partner:

• Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
• TEP Energy GmbH
• ESA² GmbH

Project team: Dominik Möst, Carl-Philipp Anke, Constantin Dierstein

Contact: Carl-Philipp Anke