Oct 29, 2022
Upscaling of bark beetle infestations and management measures
Map of areas infested from 2015 to 2018 in the research area (Saxon Switzerland national park, Germany)
Bruno Walther Pietzsch, Chris Wudel und Uta Berger introduce a novel two-step approach to upscale the processes simulated with the individual-based bark beetle dispersion model IPS-SPREADS on the plot level to larger areas using a metamodel based on Markov chains. Predictions were validated with infestations observed in 2017 and 2018 in the Saxon Switzerland national park, Germany. Simulation of different sanitation felling measures indicate that sanitation felling intensities of 80 percent and above seem to mitigate further outbreak progression.
Their work improves the mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts on long-term beetle infestation risks and supports the selection of adequate management intervention. The full paper is published open access here:
Pietzsch, B. W., Wudel, C., & Berger, U. (2022). Nonparametric upscaling of bark beetle infestations and management from plot to landscape level by combining individual-based with Markov chain models. European Journal of Forest Research.
Scheme of the developed metamodel modified from Cipriotti et al. (2016) © Pietzsch et al. 2022
Percentage of dead spruce trees in the Saxon Switzerland national park region after simulations of 20 consecutive years with TWO annual bark beetle generations and varying sanitation felling intensities © Pietzsch et al. 2022
Percentage of dead spruce trees in the Saxon Switzerland national park region after simulations of 20 consecutive years with THREE annual bark beetle generations and varying sanitation felling intensities © Pietzsch et al. 2022