New publication: "Gas power - How much is needed on the road to carbon neutrality?"

Our doctoral student Hendrik Scharf, in collaboration with Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst, recently published an article on the future of the European electricity market. Using the ELTRAMOD model, various electricity consumption scenarios are examined in relation to decarbonization targets and electricity demand, and their impact on gas-fired power plant capacities in Germany and Europe is assessed.

The study underlines the continuing demand for electricity from gas. It forecasts that dependence on natural gas in Europe will increase until 2030 and only decrease slightly until 2040. Stricter targets for the share of renewable energies in the energy supply in Germany will therefore only lead to a shift in natural gas consumption to other European countries, which in turn would mean regional dependency.

An earlier coal phase-out in Germany (2030 instead of 2038) could counteract efforts to reduce dependence on natural gas and expand renewable energies. Furthermore, a premature coal phase-out without additional measures could have a negative impact on the EU Emissions Trading System: Incentives to reduce emissions would fall. The study shows that a reduction in electricity consumption and adherence to the current coal phase-out path could reduce Germany's dependence on natural gas. An earlier coal phase-out is the most effective strategy for reducing CO2 emissions in Germany, but not in a pan-European context.

The article is published in the journal Energy Policy and is available open access at the following link: https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114026