MUst - Modeling of uncertainties for a system-integrated flow based market coupling
BACKGROUND AND MOTIVATION
Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC) is today the central method for the efficient coordination of cross-border electricity trading in Europe. FBMC takes into account real grid restrictions and physical load flows directly in the market clearing process and thus enables a more precise and economical use of the transmission grids. The design of the so-called trading domains, which define the permissible trading scope between the market areas, is of crucial importance for market efficiency and grid security.
However, with the increasing complexity and dynamics of European electricity systems, in particular due to fluctuating feed-in and changing load profiles, the uncertainties in determining these trading domains are increasing significantly. Current deterministic methods cannot adequately reflect these uncertainties, which can lead to conservative capacity limits or increased risks of grid congestion. In the scientific and regulatory discussion, there is therefore growing interest in probabilistic approaches that explicitly model uncertainties and thus enable more robust and at the same time more efficient trading domains. This is where the MUst project comes in, with the aim of further developing the methodology of load flow-based market coupling in a targeted manner using innovative probabilistic procedures and making it applicable in practice.
In this way, the project contributes to systematically taking uncertainties in the electricity system into account, increasing the efficiency and robustness of load flow-based market coupling and providing a sustainable, scientifically sound basis for regulatory decisions.
PROJECT CONTENT
The MUst project pursues an interdisciplinary approach to the further development of load flow-based market coupling. The focus is on the development of probabilistic trading domains that systematically take into account uncertainties in load, generation and grid states. To this end, an industrially tested, data-driven modeling method from manufacturing and process technology is being adapted to energy system analysis for the first time. This method makes it possible to derive grid-relevant constraints efficiently and based on data without having to rely on complex deterministic simulations.
The developed methods are first validated on stillized models and then applied to real market data of the Central European interconnected grid. The probabilistic trading domains will be integrated into the established electricity market and grid model ELMOD in order to quantitatively evaluate and methodically analyze their effects on market efficiency, congestion management and grid stability.
The close cooperation with the practice partners ensures the practical relevance of the developed approaches and enables industry-oriented validation under real operating conditions. The project results will be delivered in line with open science principles via workshops, scientific publications and open energy platforms.
Duration: 2026 - 2029
Funding: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE)
Partners: TU Dresden (coordinator), Frauhnhofer IWU, Return on Data UG, 50Hertz Transmission GmbH
Project management: Dominik Möst, Dimitrios Glynos, Jannis Eichenberg
Contact person: Dimitrios Glynos