07.05.2024; Kolloquium
Colloquium: The Dynamics of Internal Conflict after Democratization
This paper investigates the relationship between democratization and internal conflict, focusing on the influence of timing and conflict type. Utilizing a local projection-based difference-in-differences approach, we analyze a dataset covering 160 countries from 1900 to 2021. Through dynamic factor analysis, we identify two dimensions of conflict - minor and major events. Our findings reveal heterogeneous effects of democratization: while minor conflict events exhibit significant long-term declines, major conflicts show no corresponding decrease, with only modest short-run declines immediately post-democratization. This study enhances our understanding of the democratization-conflict nexus and provides insights for policy formulation and conflict management strategies.