Brown Bag Seminar "Prospera, Telesecundaria Access, and learning achievement in Mexico"

This paper examines whether local telesecundaria access moderates the association between PROSPERA scholarships and student outcomes in Mexico. Linked ENLACE test records follow one student cohort from Grade 4 in 2007/08 to Grade 9. I estimate scholarship-by-access interactions for Grade 6 scholarship receipt using regression adjustment and weighting. When a telesecundaria is the nearest secondary-school option, scholarship estimates for mathematics and Spanish score changes are 8.075 points (0.092 SD) and 4.037 points (0.055 SD), respectively. When a general or technical school is nearer, the estimates are -0.092 points (-0.001 SD) and -1.202 points (-0.016 SD), neither statistically significant. Scholarships predict higher observed grade progression, measured by the last grade with a recorded test score: 0.087 grades (0.103 SD) without nearest access and 0.173 grades (0.204 SD) with it. The scholarship association with telesecundaria attendance is 11.1 percentage points larger with nearest access. These patterns persist after accounting for general, technical, and combined traditional-school supply. Post-treatment school-type comparisons suggest achievement heterogeneity, with weaker evidence for progression, but do not identify causal mediation. The findings distinguish positive progression associations across access conditions from achievement associations concentrated under nearest telesecundaria access.