Three Essays on the Determinants of Radicalization – A Case of North-Western Pakistan

M.Phil. Fahim Nawaz
http://www.dlgs-dresden.de/fellows/fahim-nawaz

1. What is the title of your dissertation? How did the idea come about to deal with this particular topic in your doctoral thesis?

© A. Pohl/IOER-Media

I grew up in Peshawar – the capital city of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, located in the country’s northwest along Afghanistan’s border. During the Soviet-Afghan war (1979-1989) and the US-Taliban war (2001-2021), many people from KP joined the Afghan Taliban in their fight against the foreign forces in Afghanistan. After 9/11, a faction of the Taliban also turned against Pakistani for helping the US in its war in Afghanistan. The terrorist campaigns against Pakistan resulted in over 80,000 fatalities and an economic cost of about $126 billion, with most losses occurring in KP. Despite inflicting these heavy losses, the Taliban still enjoyed considerable support in KP. Witnessing these events made me curious about the factors that drove this support. In search of answers, I encountered the stereotype that considered religion/Islam the major driver of radicalization in Pakistan. However, preliminary scrutiny of the scholarly literature revealed that most empirical studies found no relationship between religion and radicalization, refrained from a single-factor explanation of the phenomenon, and advocated a multi-factor analysis to understand it. This motivated me to undertake a broader empirical investigation of the determinants of radicalization through my doctoral research.

2. What were the central research questions and which methods did you use to answer the questions?

The main question of my research is, ‘which factors drive radicalization in North-Western Pakistan.’ To answer this, I first systematically reviewed 148 research papers to identify the potential determinants of radicalization. Afterward, I empirically tested the predictive power of the factors identified in the systematic review using survey data collected from undergraduate students in KP. This was accomplished through ordinary least square regressions and the non-linear threshold regression methods.

3. In your opinion, what are the most exciting results of your thesis and what implications can be drawn for society?

Two findings of my dissertation are particularly interesting. First, it detects a null relationship between religiosity and radicalization. Instead, it finds Salafism as a significant determinant of radicalization in Pakistan. This indicates that instead of religiosity per se, certain ideologies such as Salafism drives radicalization. Second, the study finds that the perception of socioeconomic hardships drives radicalization only in highly religious people.

4. You investigate the determinants of radicalization using primary data from a household survey in the north-western region of Pakistan. To what extent can the results of the studies be generalized and transferred to other regions?
The study finds Salafism as an important predictor of radicalization. Salafism instills collectivist religious thinking and impels its adherents to view the out-groups from a conflict perspective. This presents the differing faiths/sects as threats to the ‘true’ Islam, catalyzing extreme actions as defensive measures. This impact is particularly salient in the Western/European countries, where the collectivist religious thinking deters integration of the minority Muslims and catalyzes self-marginalization and self-exclusion. The host societies reciprocate with prejudice, skepticism, and right-wing tendencies. This results in a mutually reinforcing process of religious and right-wing radicalization.

5. You did your doctorate in a structured doctoral program at DLGS. From your point of view, what are the advantages of such a program? And are there any disadvantages?

The Dresden Leibniz Graduate School (DLGS) is an ideal platform for doctoral studies. Its well-planned structured program allows a timely completion of doctoral projects. It provides ample opportunities for learning new skills by organizing different courses at regular intervals. Likewise, it arranges gremiums and summer/autumn schools where candidates get the opportunity to present their work and receive valuable feedback. Moreover, it offers a diverse intercultural environment where talents from different parts of the world flourish. Finally, its generous fellowship facilitates an exclusive focus on doctoral research.

6. What’s next for you? What are your career plans?
I will take up a teaching position at a university in Pakistan to transfer and multiply the skills I learned during my studies in Germany.