Kolloquium: The Fertility Effects of Remote Work

Abstract:
Does working from home (WFH) affect fertility? Using administrative records from a large German statutory health insurer, I study 684,520 employed women aged 20–39 observed monthly from 2018 through 2024. I exploit the pandemic-induced expansion of remote work in a difference-in-differences design, comparing women in occupations with different levels of pre-pandemic WFH potential. I find no persistent aggregate effect on births, but substantial heterogeneity by age. A 10-percentage-point increase in WFH potential raises births by 7.0% among women aged 20–30, but reduces births by 2.5% among women aged 31–39. These effects largely offset in the aggregate. The age-specific effects are consistent with greater fertility planning among younger women and more pregnancy terminations among older women. Among younger women, the positive fertility effect is stronger in regions with greater childcare constraints. WFH may facilitate transition into motherhood while making additional births less attractive for some mothers.