Kolloquium: Voluntary or Forced Immobility? An Empirical Application of The Aspirations–Capabilities Framework

ABSTRACT: This paper examines why Ukrainian women aged 18–60 choose to remain in a war-affected country despite having the legal right to leave. Drawing on a nationally representative survey conducted in January 2025, we present the first empirical application of the aspirations–capabilities framework (de Haas 2021) in a conflict setting. By mapping both aspirations to migrate and constraints to leave, we classify respondents into four types: potential migrants, trapped stayers, voluntary stayers, and acquiescent stayers. Our findings show that migration likelihood is shaped by age, income, urban residence, prior displacement experience, and social obligations. The study contributes to the research on forced migration during wartime, addressing mobility bias and providing valuable real-time insights into immobility during war. It also provides evidence to inform policy interventions aimed at supporting those who stay –an often invisible but most numerous and crucial share of the country population, which is an important source for country resilience during the war and post-war recovery.