Kolloquium: Vorträge der Preisträger des Professor-Hilbert-Publikations­preises 2026

Mit dem Prof.-Hilbert-Publikationspreis zeichnen wir jedes Jahr herausragende Journal-Publikationen des wissenschaftlichen Nachwuchses aus. In diesem Jahr gehören Simon Bolz (Professur für VWL, insb. Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung) und Hendrik Scharf (Professur für BWL, insb. Energiewirtschaft) zu den Presiträgern. Sie werden im Kolloquium ihre ausgezeichneten Publikationen näher vorstellen.

Paper und Abstract von Simon Bolz:
Bolz, S.J.; Naumann, F., & Richter, P.M. (2026):  Unilateral environmental policy and offshoring, in: Journal of International Economics. 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104185

This paper examines how offshoring shapes emissions leakage and global emissions in response to unilateral environmental policy. We use a general equilibrium offshoring model with heterogeneous firms, based on standard modeling assumptions, where firms allocate labor between production tasks and emissions abatement. We find that global emissions respond non-monotonically to a unilateral emissions tax increase: for small cross-country tax differentials, emissions fall; but as the difference widens, leakage exceeds 100%, raising global emissions due to a global technique effect. The cleanest domestic firms start offshoring and incumbent offshoring firms become dirtier under declining effective foreign taxes. We isolate the offshoring margin – one underexplored channel of leakage – and contrast our findings with comparable models of trade in final goods: the mode of globalization matters. Complementing the unilateral reform with a border carbon adjustment (BCA) prevents emissions leakage but may raise inequality between countries. 

Paper und Abstract von Hendrik Scharf:  
Scharf, H. (2026): How do different hydrogen and emission allowance price scenarios shape the cost-effective energy transition in Germany's process industries?, in: Journal of Industrial Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70051

This paper investigates future energy requirements; amounts of carbon dioxide needed, emitted, or captured; and capital and operating expenses in Germany's process industries derived from a techno-economic evaluation of production methods under various scenarios. These methods include maintaining conventional production, adopting direct electrification, or implementing hydrogen-based technologies. Scenarios vary the assumptions on hydrogen and carbon dioxide emission allowance prices for 2035 and 2045. Which production methods are cost-effective, and therefore assumed to be implemented in the scenarios, depends on marginal abatement costs of carbon dioxide emissions across industries. For 2035, results show that only very low hydrogen prices and emission allowance prices above €200 per metric ton drive significant adoption of low-carbon production methods, with hydrogen demand ranging from nearly zero to 238 TWh and electricity demand from 54 to 197 TWh. Scenarios for 2045 assume full defossilization, with hydrogen demand ranging between 267 and 419 TWh and electricity requirements between 163 and 301TWh. Across all scenarios analyzing 2045, 263 TWh of hydrogen are used as a reactant, a reductant, or for metallurgical purposes, making this demand portion, given the lack of other defossilization options, unavoidable when aiming for complete defossilization while maintaining domestic production. Additionally, the paper regionalizes selected scenario results based on site-specific data. The regionalization reveals a strong concentration of high hydrogen demands for use as a reactant and reductant at only a few sites, posing challenges for integration into the energy infrastructure, while hydrogen used for process heating shows a more decentralized distribution.