Policy Paper: Has the backlash arrived in iberia?

Two countries, a similar past and political trajectory—and yet very different paths. In her new MIDEM Policy Paper, Mariana S. Mendes examines how public attitudes toward immigration in Spain and Portugal have evolved since 2010, to what extent they are ideologically shaped, and how closely they are linked to voting behavior.

The findings are surprising: there is no uniform shift in public sentiment across the Iberian Peninsula. In Spain, attitudes toward migration remain remarkably stable and comparatively open despite the rise of the right-wing populist party VOX—and there are largely no signs of increasing polarization. In Portugal, by contrast, public opinion has become significantly more hostile since 2023/24, paralleling the growing presence of the right-wing populist party Chega and marking a break with a decades-long trend toward greater acceptance.

It is noteworthy that this shift cannot be explained by fears of economic decline, as the economic contribution of migration continues to be viewed predominantly positively. So why do two countries with such similar starting conditions diverge? The study shows that political mobilization and public opinion do not necessarily move in lockstep.

Available at:

https://forum-midem.de/stimmungswandel-auf-der-iberischen-halbinsel-einstellungen-zur-migration-in-spanien-und-portugal/