MIDEM Polarization Barometer 2025: The topics that divide Germany

MIDEM Polarization Barometer 2025 shows the ideological and affective polarization in Germany

Over 81 percent Germans believe their country is divided. Immigration is seen as having the greatest potential to cause division. Climate change measures and support for Ukraine cause the greatest degree of ideological polarization. Along with immigration, these issues also show the highest level of affective polarization. These are the findings of the Polarization Barometer released by the Mercator Forum Migration and Democracy (MIDEM) at TU Dresden. The survey of almost 34,000 people in eight EU countries, including around 4,400 people in Germany, makes it clear: Certain issues divide public opinion significantly, without undermining the stability of democracy. Others see conflicts escalate because political opponents become enemies. Other issues show that, even with widespread agreement, strong emotions can prevent productive discussion.

Two forms of polarization

The Polarization Barometer differentiates between idealogical polarization (substantive differences of opinion) and affective polarization (emotional devaluation of those who think differently). “Not a day goes by without a warning about the growing divide,” says Prof. Hans Vorländer, head of the study. "But this cuts the analysis short. We need to distinguish: When is polarization truly a threat to democracy? And when is it a perfectly normal part of pluralist politics?" Democracies – to a certain extent – need ideological polarization. Affective polarization, on the other hand, can weaken democratic cohesion. This is because it obstructs mutual understanding and turns political competition into enmity.

Strong affective polarization among the elderly, men, and low-income earners

Overall, older people, men and low-income earners show the highest affective polarization values. One striking finding is that respondents who clearly position themselves as ‘left’ or ‘right’ are more polarized – though to a much greater extent on the right. Supporters of the AfD or the Greens have a particularly strong emotional resentment of people with different views – these two camps are similar in this respect. The numbers for CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP supporters remain significantly lower.

Four discourse zones with different challenges

Four archetypal “discourse zones” can be identified from the interaction of ideological and affective polarization, which highlight different challenges for politics and society. “Politics, the media, and civil society must respond differently – depending on whether they are dealing with a divisive issue, a conflict issue, or a inciting issue,” says Vorländer. “Generic warnings about ‘the divide’ don't help. We need nuanced assessments for differentiated strategies.”

• The dividing zone – Strongly opposing camps of opinion and high mutual emotional charge: In Germany, these include climate protection measures (42% in favor of more measures, 40% against), support for Ukraine, peacekeeping and armaments. “This makes solution-oriented political action very difficult,” warns Vorländer.
• The irritant zone – Clear majorities, high emotional dissent: When it comes to immigration in general, 67 percent of respondents call for restrictions. However, “emotional irritation can block quick solutions to problems,” explains Vorländer.
• The conflict zone – Large differences of opinion, low emotional charge: In Germany, this is the case with the requirements for the integration of immigrants. 40 percent demand full cultural assimilation, 47 percent consider language acquisition and compliance with the law to be sufficient. “Compromises can be found here – with a great deal of negotiation,” says Vorländer.
• The compromise zone – low differences of opinion and low emotional dissent: In Germany, this is the case with international trade relations. Differences are accepted and solutions enjoy a high level of acceptance.

Topics instead of political parties: A new research approach

Unlike previous studies, the Polarization Barometer does not primarily examine political parties. “Parties have lost their structuring power,” explains Vorländer. "Politics today is under pressure from directly voiced interests. Discourses are shaped by emotionally charged interventions in digital media.” The study therefore focuses on a total of 15 issues in the fields of immigration, security, climate change, the economy, social issues and fundamental values. For each field, respondents were asked to state their position and their emotional attitude towards those who hold different views.

For a culture of democratic discourse

“A thriving democracy needs debate – but these debates should not lead to fractures,” says Christiane von Websky, Head of Participation and Cohesion at Stiftung Mercator. "The Polarization Barometer clearly shows that we need to take a closer look: Not every difference is a division, and not every conflict jeopardizes cohesion. The decisive factor is whether we remain in a position to talk to each other – even about what divides us."

Long-term monitoring until 2027

The Polarization Barometer is the first wave of a three-year panel in collaboration with YouGov. “We will interview the same people again twice by 2027,” explains Vorländer. “This allows us to observe whether lines of conflict in Germany and Europe are hardening or dissolving – an important early indicator of social developments.” The survey covers Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Spain, the Czechia, and Hungary and follows on from the first MIDEM polarization study from 2023.

You can find the complete study with all the data, methodology and analyses at: www.forum-midem.de

About MIDEM

The Mercator Forum for Migration and Democracy (MIDEM) is a research center at TUD Dresden University of Technology, funded by Stiftung Mercator. MIDEM analyzes how migration both shapes and is shaped itself by democratic policies, institutions and cultures. It investigates forms, instruments and processes of politically processing migration in democratic societies – in individual countries and in a comparative view of Europe.

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