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Ongoing PhD-Theses
The influence of trees and
agroforestry systems in risk reduction and adaptation
measures from climate change in rural areas of the Peruvian
Andes
by MSc. Francois Jost
Main Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Jürgen Pretzsch (Professorship of
Tropical Forestry, TUD)
ABSTRACT: Climate change as a long-term hazard is already
affecting the small-scale farmers in the Andean regions of Peru
through extreme weather events. Weather hazards like frosts,
hailstorms, droughts and floods are affecting crops and
livestock, increasing food insecurity and poverty levels. Risk
reduction and adaptation measures are one of the most urgent
aspects for local small-scale farmers depending on agriculture.
Although they have reduced, in some extent, the impacts of
these hazards by adapting farming techniques, varying their
crops and altering their planting season, so far not much is
known about the related local knowledge, behavior and action.
The Achamayo river basin is a typical inter-Andean valley of
Peru’s central highlands ranging from 4500 m asl. down to 3250
m asl., where agriculture remain one of the main economic
activities and traditional agricultural practices are still in
use. Here, droughts, more precisely, agricultural droughts
during the midsummer (“veranillos”) are one of the events which
affect crops most directly and thus the livelihoods of the
small-scale farmers in the region. Even if the mean annual
rainfall has not changed significantly, there is a loss in the
yield production due to agricultural droughts, and their
incidence is increasing in the last years.
By increasing the trees and forest share in the area i.e.
through agroforestry systems, small-scale farmers can adapt
their systems to prevent natural hazards (locally mitigating
their negative effects) and simultaneously contribute to
climate change mitigation (increasing the storage of carbon in
the system), linking both adaptation and mitigation
strategies.
The main objective of the research is to analyze the use of
trees and forests as a measure of adaptation to agricultural
droughts in the rural areas of the tropical Andes. The main
focus is put on the relation between the presence of trees in
the crops (agroforestry systems) and their influence on
agricultural droughts (analyzing their effects in the yield)
and consequently in the farmer´s livelihood (with emphasis on
food security).
Therefore, local strategies used by farmers to cope with this
hazard will be assessed together with the farm household
systems. The implications of agricultural droughts and the
yield variations in staple crops between the different
production systems (agricultural and agroforestry systems)
together with the food security (risk reduction) will be
analyzed. In addition, vulnerabilities in the study area will
be identified. Finally, following the small-scale farmers’
interests and attitude towards this adaptation measure a
trade-off analysis between the different production systems
will be carried out.
Modeling the adaptation strategies
of farmers of the Andes against climate change and the
related development of land use/land cover
by MSc. Mariana Vidal
Main Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Uta Berger (Professorship in
Forest Biometrics and Systems Analysis, TUD)
ABSTRACT: There is a strong demand from policy makers for
predictions about the impacts of climate change and the effect
of potential adaptation responses on the local scale. This can
be a difficult task, especially when dealing with highly
complex socio-ecological systems. This study approaches the
suitability of Agent-Based-Models (ABMs) for such a task.
Formally, agent-based modeling is a computational method that
enables a researcher to create, analyze, and experiment with
models composed of agents that interact with each other within
an environment.
The research uses Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent
Systems (MP-MAS), an ABM software application for simulating
land use change in agriculture and forestry. We use MP-MAS for
assessing the development of farming systems under potential
climate change scenarios in agricultural systems of the Andes
of Peru. MP-MAS couples a cellular component representing a
physical landscape with an agent-based component representing
land-use decision-making. The uniqueness of MP-MAS lies in the
fact that it incorporates whole farm mathematical programming
to simulate land use decision-making.
A prototype was implemented with the data available from the
INCA project in the Achamayo watershed located in Junín, Peru.
As environmental driver of land use change the model included
temperature in three different scenarios for the year 2050
(scenario A: no T° change, scenario B: +1.3°C, scenario C:
+3°C). Main land uses included agriculture, grasslands, forest
plantations and urban areas. Preliminary results show in all
scenarios an expansion of the agricultural land while
grasslands decrease in total area and also in quality (with
more grassland area categorized as “low density”). Between the
adaptation responses of farmers, agroforestry was the one with
a higher increase, especially in scenario C.
A second phase of the implementation of MP-MAS will grow to
include water availability as other environmental variable as
driver of land use change. It will also introduce market forces
to make a more realistic model environment. Finally, the third
phase will model the introduction of potential policy
interventions (e.g. credit, subsidies) for local livelihood
improvement.
A socio-economic analysis of
livelihood strategies in rural forest depending communities
in lowland Bolivia under a changing climate
by MSc. Tina Bauer
Main Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Jürgen Pretzsch (Professorship of Tropical Forestry, TUD)
ABSTRACT: Tropical forests are threatened by many (human) disturbances - two of the most important of which are deforestation and climate change. At the same time it is predicted that poor countries will suffer the majority of the damages from climate change. Although adaptation, wealth, and technology may influence distributional consequences across countries, the primary reason that poor countries are so vulnerable is their location. Deforestation is one of the major drivers of climate change in the tropics, in return those countries are also the most vulnerable to a changing climate. Bolivia is one of the countries sharing this history and being already exposed to heavy climate change impacts like glacier retreat, changes in seasonality, increasing temperatures and extreme weather events. For this study two lowland regions were chosen to in order to understand the linkage between the livelihood of local people in forest depending communities and interrelated constraints and opportunities towards climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. To contribute to the mitigation of the impacts of climate change on these two valuable and species-rich tropical forest regions in lowland Bolivia and at the same time on the forest depending people, it is important to understand the current hindrances to climate change adaptation-mitigation practices. This understanding will help to increase the adaptive capacity to climate chnage
Adaptive capacity of rural communities to climate change in the biocultural system of the Andes - Bolivia
by MSc. Marolyn Vidaurre
Main Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Jürgen Pretzsch (Professorship of Tropical Forestry, TUD)
ABSTRACT: Rural communities in the Andes of Bolivia are witness of the biocultural system changes. The style of life in these communities is the result of a coevolution process between nature and social system, and the adaptive capacities develop throughout generation. Yet, quality of life in these communities is highly sensitive to climate variability and change, in particular when climate changes challenge traditional relationships between social and ecological systems. Actually, rural communities are conducting an endogenous sustainable development process based on local, governmental and nongovernmental initiatives that are promoting the implementation of a series of scenarios to improve the quality of life in the communities. Therefore, the present research aims to assess the contribution of scenarios on endogenous sustainable development process to the adaptive capacities to climate change in rural communities. Under the framework of vulnerability assessment to climate change a participatory approach will be conducted in two biocultural zones. The methodology is divided in three main stages: (1) Vulnerability assessment at the municipality level; (2) Climate change vulnerability assessment at household level and; (3) Assessment of scenarios of endogenous sustanible development process. The main contribution of the present research is to take a step ahead on the understanding of the biocultural system and its adaptive capacity to cope with climate change in the Andean region of Bolivia.