Collision Risk Modelling Capability for Independent Parallel Approaches

Project Information

Since many years, safety research in aviation is a major field at the Chair of Air Transport Technology and Logistics. A significant number of papers were published, which handle topics like collision risk assessment within the TMA (Terminal Manoeuvring Area) of major airports with complex traffic patterns. The research focuses on the investigation of collisions with ground obstacles, as well as collision between aircraft that are in flight (Mid-Air Collisions). Based on this solid foundation, EUROCONTROL decided to cooperate with our institute to support research in the aviation safety domain and the institute was awarded a contract for the project „Collision Risk Modelling (CRM) Capability for Independent Parallel Approaches“. The main tasks of the project are to continue the work on statistical threat modelling, as well as the development of a CRM fast-time simulation to investigate refined approach procedures with reduced separation when closely-spaced, parallel runways are operated independently, according to ICAO SOIR (Manual on Simultaneous Operations on Parallel or Near-Parallel Instrument Runways).

Modelling the Status-Quo

Following current specification and regulations on how to operate parallel runways, a model was developed that reflect those, according to the ICAO Doc. 9643: Manual on Simultaneous Operations on Parallel or Near-Parallel Instrument Runways (SOIR). This document defines requirements for procedures to be implemented, both by pilots and controllers, as well as for surveillance equipment and system behaviour.

Subsequently, the model could be validated using data from historical studies. For this, based on our agent-based Monte-Carlo Simulation Framework, which has been developed in the context of the research project DFG Safety I and II, a fast-time simulation was implemented, according to the model's requirements.

Extension to Investigate Future Approach Procesdures

During the second project phase, the reference model was extended in multiple steps, which allows to investigate modern and future approach procedures, as well as refined approach environments. This comprises additional safety barriers that icrease flexibility when it comes to finding trade-offs between safety and capacity in the approach.

Publications

Stanley Förster, Hartmut Fricke, Bruno Rabiller, Brian Hickling, Bruno Favennec, and Karim Zeghal (2019): Analysis of Safety Performances for Parallel Approach Operations with Performance-based Navigation, 13^th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2019), Vienna, Austria
Hartmut Fricke, Stanley Förster, and Markus Vogel (2018): Using agent-based modeling to determine collision risk in complex TMA environments: the turn-onto-ILS-final safety case, Aeronautics and Aerospace Open Access Journal, Vol 2.
Stanley Förster, Hartmut Fricke, and Markus Vogel (2018): Using Agent-Based Modeling to Determine Collision Risk in Complex TMA Environments, 8^th International Conference on Research in Air Transportation (ICRAT), Castelldefels, Spain
Stanley Förster, Hartmut Fricke, and Markus Vogel (2017): Collision Risk Assessment Methodology for Parallel Approach Operations, Modelling and Simulation in Flight Simulation Conference, London, UK

Contact

Research Associate

Dipl.-Inf. Stanley Förster

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Chair of Air Transport Technology and Logistics

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