Abschlussarbeiten
Assessing Processes of Long-Term Land Cover Change and Modelling their Effects on Tropical Biodiversity Patterns – A Remote Sensing and GIS-Based Approach for three Landscapes in East Africa
Art der Abschlussarbeit
Dissertation
Autoren
- Lung, Tobias
Betreuer
- Prof. Dr.phil.habil. Manfred Buchroithner
Weitere Betreuer
Frau Prof. Dr. Gertrud Schaab, Hochschule Karlsruhe – Technik und Wirtschaft
Abstract
The work describes the processing and analysis of remote sensing time series data for a comparative assessment of changes in different tropical rainforest areas in East Africa. In order to assess the effects of the derived changes in land cover and forest fragmentation, the study made use of spatially explicit modelling approaches within a geographical information system (GIS) to extrapolate sets of biological field findings in space and time. The analysis and modelling results were visualised aiming to consider the requirements of three different user groups.rnIn order to evaluate measures of forest conservation and to derive recommendations for an effective forest management, quantitative landscape-scale assessments of land cover changes and their influence on forest biodiversity patterns are needed. However, few remote sensing studies have accounted for all of the following aspects at the same time: (i) a dense temporal sequence of land cover change/forest fragmentation information, (ii) the coverage of several decades, (iii) the distinction between multiple forest formations and (iv) direct comparisons of different case studies. In regards to linkages of remote sensing with biological field data, no attempts are known that use time series data for quantitative statements of long-term landscape-scale biodiversity changes. rnThe work studies three officially protected forest areas in Eastern Africa: the Kakamega-Nandi forests in western Kenya (focus area) and Mabira Forest in south-eastern Uganda as well as Budongo Forest in western Uganda (for comparison purposes). Landsat imagery of in total eight or seven dates in regular intervals from 1972/73 to 2003 was used. Making use of supervised multispectral image classification procedures, in total, 12 land cover classes (six forest formations) were distinguished for the Kakamega-Nandi forests and for Budongo Forest while for Mabira Forest ten classes could be realised. An accuracy assessment via error matrices revealed overall classification accuracies between 81% and 85%. The Kakamega-Nandi forests show a continuous decrease between 1972/73 and 2001 of 31%, Mabira Forest experienced an abrupt loss of 24% in the late 1970s/early 1980s, while Budongo Forest shows a relatively stable forest cover extent. An assessment of the spatial patterns of forest losses revealed congruence with areas of high population density while a spatially explicit forest fragmentation index indicates a strong correlation of forest fragmentation with forest management regime and forest accessibility by roads.rnFor the Kenyan focus area, three sets of biological field abundance data on keystone species/groups were used for a quantitative assessment of the influence of long-term changes in tropical forests on landscape-scale biodiversity patterns. For this purpose, the time series was extended with another three land cover data sets derived from aerial photography (1965/67, 1948/(52)) and old topographic maps (1912/13). To predict the spatio-temporal distribution of the army ant Dorylus wilverthi and of ant-following birds, GIS operators (i.e. focal and local functions) and statistical tests (i.e. OLS or SAR regression models) were combined into a spatial modelling procedure. Abundance data on three guilds of birds differing in forest dependency were directly extrapolated to five forest cover classes as distinguished in the time series. The results predict declines in species abundances of 56% for D. wilverthi, of 58% for ant-following birds and an overall loss of 47% for the bird habitat guilds, which in all three cases greatly exceed the rate of forest loss (31%). Additional extrapolations on scenarios of deforestation and reforestation confirmed the negative ecological consequences of splitting-up contiguous forest areas but also showed the potential of mixed indigenous forest plantings.rnThe visualisation of the analysis and modelling results produced a mixture of different outcomes. Map series and a matrix of maps both showing species distributions aim to address scientists and decision makers. The results of the land cover change analysis were synthesised in a map of land cover development types for each study area, respectively. These maps are designed mainly for scientists. Additional maps of change, limited to a single class of forest cover and to three dates were generated to ensure an easy-to-grasp communication of the major forest changes to decision makers. Additionally, an easy-to-handle visualisation tool to be used by scientists, decision makers and local people was developed. For the future, an extension of this study towards a more complete assessment including more species/groups and also ecosystem functions and services would be desirable. Combining a framework for land cover simulation with a framework for running empirical extrapolation models in an automated manner could ideally result in a GIS-based, integrated forest ecosystem assessment tool to be used as regional spatial decision support system.
Zugeordnete Forschungsschwerpunkte
- Fernerkundungskartographie
Schlagwörter
land cover dynamics
Berichtsjahr
2010