Kolloquium: Immigration and Nationalism in the Long Run

Abstract:
This study identifies how local experiences with immigration in the distant past shape political reactions to new waves of immigration in the present. We exploit a spatially discontinuous resettlement of forced migrants in post-war Germany, analyzing digitized municipal panel data from 1925–2021. Nationalist electoral backlashes against contemporary immigration are substantially weaker in regions that were historically exposed to immigrants. This exposure has no electoral effects when immigration is not salient, but immigration waves activate latent differences in political preferences, even decades later. To examine the mechanisms, we combine the observational analysis with a geocoded survey with experimental elements in the study region. Results from both the randomized and the natural experiment consistently show that historical exposure to immigration has led natives to revise their beliefs about the consequences of immigration, particularly its long-term economic benefits. With additional evidence beyond the study context, the results demonstrate how positive integration experiences can mitigate nationalism in the long run.