While alcohol consumption in Europe is declining, the global average is rising - it has increased especially in middle-income countries such as China and India over the past three decades. The results of an international study led by psychologists from TU Dresden suggest that WHO is unlikely to meet its target: Global alcohol consumption should be reduced by ten percent by 2025. The sobering forecast of the study for 2030: per capita consumption will even increase, from currently 6.5 to 7.6 litres of pure alcohol per year. The study has now been published by the renowned medical journal The Lancet.

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The German-Canadian collaboration around Prof. Jürgen Rehm, head of the Epidemiological Research Unit Addiction at TU Dresden's Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, examined alcohol consumption in 189 countries from 1990 to 2017 with a view to 2030. "The predictions were significantly higher than expected," says Prof. Rehm. The results are needed both by the United Nations for its reporting, and in the Global Burden of Disease Study and the WHO Global Status Reports. First author Jakob Manthey, graduate psychologist at the Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy at TU Dresden, explains: "Based on our data, the WHO’s aim of reducing the harmful use of alcohol by 10% by 2025 will not be reached globally. Instead, alcohol use will remain one of the leading risk factors for the burden of disease for the foreseeable future, and its impact will probably increase relative to other risk factors. Implementation of effective alcohol policies is warranted, especially in rapidly developing countries with growing rates of alcohol use."

7.6 litres of alcohol per year, which corresponds to about 410 millilitres of beer per day - on average. But those 53 percent of the world's population who lived abstinently in 2017 are not involved in these 410 milliliters, and marginally only those who only drink on weekends and holidays. What remains is a much higher average consumption for habitual drinkers. Alcohol is an important health risk factor and is associated with more than 200 illnesses. Since 1990, the volume of alcohol consumed has increased by 70 percent, also due to population growth. In 2030, according to the forecast, half of all adults will drink regularly, almost a quarter will binge drink at least once a month - i.e. 60 grams (3 bottles of beer of 0.5 litres each) or more alcohol at one time.

While the volume remains stable in affluent countries and even decreases slightly per capita, it has grown particularly in low and middle-income countries.

"Alcohol use is prevalent globally, but with clear regional differences that can largely be attributed to religion, implementation of alcohol policies, and economic growth," Manthey says. "The growing alcohol market in middle-income countries is estimated to more than outweigh the declining use in high-income countries, resulting in a global increase."

In particular Southeast Asia and China are leading the global growth trend. The highest growth rates in alcohol consumption were recorded in India and Vietnam. Although Europe is still the leader with a per capita volume of 9.8 litres of alcohol per year, Southeast Asia (with currently 4.7 litres far below this) has grown by 104 percent between 1990 and 2017, since 2010 at least still by 34 percent, which by model calculations is seen as a trend that should catch up with the European alcohol volume in 2030. According to forecasts, the Western Pacific Region with China will even be significantly higher. However, some regions are hoping for healthy trends: Eastern European consumption has fallen sharply. The lowest alcohol rates are recorded in the Middle East and North Africa.

In addition to slight fluctuations in life-long abstinence, which has fallen from 46 to 43 percent of the world's population, and the marginal increase in intoxication, the authors emphasize that the volume of alcohol consumed is growing faster than the number of drinkers - and thus also per capita consumption.

In order to limit alcohol consumption, the researchers propose, for example, higher taxation, restrictions on availability or advertising bans.

According to the forecast, Germany will remain one of the world's highest alcohol rates with at least 12 litres per capita per year. By the way, the study shows clear differences between the sexes: Central European women drink less than one third of the amount of alcohol consumed by men at 17.8 litres (5.3 litres per year). The gender-specific distribution of consumption on a global average is similar: 2.7 litres per year for women compared with 9.8 litres per year for men.

Information for journalists: 
Prof. Jürgen Rehm
Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, TU Dresden
Head, Epidemiological Research Unit - Addiction
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Canada
Phone: +1 416 535 8501 ext. 36173