Diplomarbeit Martin Otto

Modellierung von Hagelschäden in der PKW-Kaskoversicherung in Deutschland

Abstract

This thesis goal was to model hail in Germany in matters of damage to automobiles and the resulting costs for insurance companies.
The model has been developed on basis of respective literature, the analysis of radar images and hail loss data from different insurance companies for each two hailstorms of the last few years.
The model was set up in different modules, which provides the opportunity to model the hailstorm as a meteorological event and its emerged claims separately. The single event is generated through different parameters and displayed as an ellipses, whereas parameter values base on certain probability distributions. The postcode connects the generated hail events to the automobile portfolios. A database application calculates average damage values per car for the hail events. This calculation is based on scientific statistics and logical considerations with reference to the spatial distribution of automobiles at the time of a hailstorm. The models outcomes are
reoccurrence periods for a certain loss through hailstorm. These values are given as loss curves. 
An additional developed accumulated loss index and a hailstorm exposition index help interpreting the generated loss curves.
A successful evaluation of the models outcomes was achieved and confirmed by comparison  to historical hailstorm events.