07.05.2024; Kolloquium
Kolloquium: Breaking Bad or Making Amends? The Dynamics of Internal Conflict after Democratization
This paper investigates the relationship between democratization and internal conflict, focusing on the influence of timing and conflict type. Utilizing a local projection-based difference-in-differences approach, we analyze a dataset covering 160 countries from 1900 to 2021. Through dynamic factor analysis, we identify two dimensions of conflict - minor and major events. Our findings reveal heterogeneous effects of democratization: while minor conflict events exhibit significant long-term declines, major conflicts show no corresponding decrease, with only modest short-run declines immediately post-democratization. This study enhances our understanding of the democratization-conflict nexus and provides insights for policy formulation and conflict management strategies.