Description

Project section 2: Designing of models for assessing rainfall runoff model uncertainty

The objective of the project section is to develop methodologies for analysing, assessing and processing the nature of the uncertainties arising from rainfall runoff models used in this project. For this purpose the following step by step procedures are necessary and are exemplarily employed for the rainfall runoff model of the Freiberger Mulde. The R.R model for the Freiberger Mulde likewise employs the same procdures along the lines of the WaSiM-ETH distributed hydrological model:

• A sensitivity analysis for the indentification of flood sensitive parameters.
• A comparison with the R.R. model employed in HORIX for the Schwarzer Pockau. A comparison assists is analysing the model's behaviour in extreme cases (flood August 2002) and with the assessment of uncertainties.
• An analysis of the uncertainties of the R.R. models. 2 Methodologies are described:
  • The development of a modified simulation-based methodology, in accordance with the GLUE principle. This is then applicable to all the project-specific R. R. models and is especially relevant in the case of flood events.
  • Development of a stochastic methodology for evaluating the input parameter uncertainties for R.R modelling. This allows avoiding cumbersome computing methods by employing statistical moments within a perturbation R.R. model