HORIX: The Development of an Online Operational Expert System for Flood Risk Management under consideration of Forecast Uncertainty.

The research project’s objective is to improve flood management within the medium scale catchment areas of the Mittelgebirge on the basis of ‘rainfall-runoff forecasting / rainfall-runoff model / hydraulic model’. The research involves an analysis of the model uncertainties featured within each of the three aforementioned categories and will integrate these to form a comprehensive forecast uncertainty model, capable of delivering speedier and more reliable forecast warnings. With the help of a neural network based expert system – still in the development phase - the uncertainties will form the basis of flood risk / danger estimation and subsequent flood warning processes. They thus make a considerable contribution towards a more efficient flood management. It is not the intention to interfere with currently operational flood warning systems: The expert system is intended to support and maximise the potential of flood forecasting and - due to its calibration – can be employed online in any chosen catchment area.

Timescale:    Jul. 2005 - Jun. 2008
Financed by:  BMB