Description

Keywords:

regional flood risk, dissemination of information, coupled extreme values statistic

Objectives

The aim of the project is an improved flood frequency analysis. Acquired knowledge resulting from experience and observations during the extreme flood events in Saxony 2002 and regionally in the Ore Mountains (1999) will all play an important role in the research. The flood statistic analysis will be based on a wider, more complex approach than the hitherto observations gained from the analysis of unconnected events.

The objective is a regional and surface based analysis of the time and space occurence of flood events in Saxony. The catalyst local weather situation, regionally observed precipitation patterns and the global weather map (meso and macro scale) are all taken into consideration. The evaluation will enable a methodology to be developed for calculating flood risk, whereby the emphasis lies in the combination of precipitation and discharge statistics. The procedure will be developed on a region-specific basis. The regions will be categorised on the basis of their flood risk vulnerabililty under specific weather configurations.

The concept will also be relevant for flood risk evaluations in the near and distant future - even under differing climatic conditions.

Methods

• Gauge based evaluation of the spatial distribution of flood events in Saxony.
• Increase in the information output via rainfall runoff models including the constant evaluation of actual current water levels and the present flood situation.
• Enrichment of flood data with additional, fresh information about non quantified events from archives, chroniclers, fire stations etc.
• Evaluation of the spatial distribution of precipitation during the period of the research project.
• Evaluation of global weather maps to discover genetically homogeneous flood areas.
• Creation of updated flood statistics for Saxony via the coupled analysis of all data acquired through former models and methodologies.

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