Description
Keywords:
flood risk, large catchments, coupled statistics, rainfall runoff modelling, IPCC-scenario, potential damage
Objectives - general
The aim of the interdisciplinary project VERIS-Elbe is to explore changes in the risk of extreme flood events in large catchments and to create possibilities for their integrated management. Flood risk, vulnerability and damage mitigation will be simulated with a focus on natural and social changes. The effectiveness of the proposed actions to be undertaken in the future will be analyzed and estimated. Firstly the project will propose a methodology. Secondly a trial will be organized for the case study Elbe. The analysis of the effectiveness is based on an interdisciplinary model system of the most important physical processes ranging from rainfall to damage mitigation. Climate and land use changes will be included in middle-term scenarios (till 2055). Possibilities could be an activation of retention areas as well as a decrease of vulnerability. The scenarios will be rated multicriterially paying particular attention to their economic, social and ecologic effectiveness and efficiency.
Objectives - IHM, TU Dresden
The IHM is to compute the rainfall runoff model LISFLOOD combining it with new statistical approaches. Along these lines it will be possible to calculate the probability of runoff data at different cross sections of the Elbe. The research areas include the current status as well as different climate changes scenarios (IPCC-scenarios A2, A1B and B1). The development of a coupling scheme between rainfall and runoff as a new statistic approach will enable an improved and more informed estimation of flood probability when compared with the classic monocriterial approach. This is the basis for a more realistic estimation of potential damage, for recommendations with respect to middle-term flood forecasting, for an efficiency review and for the monitoring of the future development of the Elbe.
Methodology - general
Project structure of VERIS-Elbe
The project requires a complex research design. On the one hand the relationships between different effects of flood risks shall be shown. On the other hand it is necessary to formulate and analyze alternative possibilities for development. For simulating the flood risk a whole model system is used (fig. above). Based on a digital elevation model (DEM) it is possible to interface the rainfall runoff model LISFLOOD, the water level prediction model system (WAVOS), the hydraulic Surface water Modelling System (SMS), the GIS based flood damage simulation model HOWAD and various other new statistic approaches. This will clearly reflect the consequences of an action and will show how the models will react and adapt to a specific global or regional change, e.g. changes in the water balance brought about by an altered climate imput.